The below piece was in the Los Angeles Times. It describes a scenario that could easily happen in Austin given Metro's current tack.
Metro, with its decades long obsession with rail, has failed to increase per capita ridership since re-instituting fares in 1990. Last year they matched 1990 levels for the first time. The double whammy fare hikes will knock ridership back down so that per capita ridership in 2010 will be lower than 20 years prior.
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The MTA's train wreck
By pouring money into rail projects, the agency is pushing riders off the buses.